Adjusting an Elliott Wave Count in Real Time

By Elliott Wave International

On August 25, Elliott Wave International's Commodity Pro Service editor, Jim Martens, saw something in the coffee chart that bothered him.

He showed this chart and told subscribers:

“The bullish outlook stands, but if a larger wave II correction is unfolding, coffee will turn lower from nearby levels. The overlapping rise from 293.25 to a double top near 341.80 could represent wave ((B)) of a flat correction.”

Coffee gapped lower two days later.

On August 27, Jim updated his forecast:

“As warned on Tuesday, the double top represents wave ((B)) of a larger wave II correction: a flat. Wave (C) should exceed the end of wave (A) at 293.25, and wave II will retrace 61.8% of wave I at 273.90.”

What Happened Next

Less than a month later, December coffee reached the 273.90 objective Jim had identified.

From Jim’s August 27 outlook to the target, coffee declined approximately 12.6%.

Learn how to identify Elliott wave patterns and calculate wave-based price targets in your charts.This handy FREE resource teaches you the Elliott Wave basics in 30 minutes >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Martens' Coffee Forecast - Switch from Caffeinated to Decaf Pays Off!. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

If the Federal Reserve Board is So Smart, I’d Hate to See What Dumb Looks Like!

By Elliott Wave International

The federal government is now spending about $1.25 trillion a year just to pay interest on the $40 trillion national debt.

There are of course the usual suspects: profligate spending, bureaucracy, lack of accountability, waste.

How did we get here?

For years, the U.S. government borrowed money at historically low interest rates, a real gravy train. And in 2020, the Fed’s expectation was that those rates would stay low for years.

Take a look at this chart:

Interest rates rose from 1942 to 1981. Then they spent roughly 40 years trending lower, reaching historic lows by 2020.

At the time, there was little reason to believe — at least according to the conventional view — that things were about to change. In September 2020, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters that the Fed expected short-term interest rates to remain near zero for at least three years, through the end of 2023.

It made sense to almost everyone. The economy was still dealing with the effects of the pandemic, inflation was subdued, and the Federal Reserve was providing extraordinary monetary stimulus.

Besides, who would ever doubt the Fed chairman?

Analysts at Elliott Wave International saw things very differently. And they put it in print for the world to see.

On September 23, 2020, The Elliott Wave Theorist addressed the Fed's outlook directly:

“On September 16, Fed Chairman Powell…told reporters that he expected short term interest rates to stay near zero…through ‘the end of 2023.’ …there is not a chance in the world of that scenario playing out. The probability is high that interest rates have begun a process of rising….”

That's a stark difference.

The Fed was telling investors to continue to expect near-zero rates for years. EWI was saying that the gravy train was OVER. Rates had bottomed.

And then look at what happened:

Rates rose across all time frames. Some, like 10-year yields, went up tenfold. T-bill rates that had been hovering near zero ultimately surged above 5%, rising 100-fold!

The four-decade era of generally falling interest rates had given way to something very different – with enormous consequences for investors and for debtors, including the federal government.

Individuals, businesses and governments who had built their future plans around the Fed’s completely incorrect assumptions and prognostications were caught in a nightmare scenario.

Fast Forward to Today

This chart shows a close-up view of the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note since 2020.

Today, as older government debt matures, some of it has to be replaced with new debt carrying substantially higher interest rates, contributing to the enormous $1.25 trillion annual interest bill.

And the effects of higher rates aren't limited to Washington — mortgages, home-equity loans, commercial real estate and longer-duration car loans are all feeling the pressure as the effects spread throughout the financial system — and NOT just in the U.S.

This Isn't Just Happening in America

While investors spend a lot of time wondering what the Fed will do next, long-term interest rates have been moving in some important ways around the world.

In Japan, for example, the 10-year government bond yield recently reached its highest level in 30 years.

Government bond yields in several other major economies have also been moving higher.

Remember how all this started. In 2020, economists agreed that ultra-low interest rates would stick around for years. EWI said the process of rising interest rates had already begun. Six years later, the U.S. is spending $1.25 trillion a year on interest. And a string of recent 30-year Treasury auctions has pushed borrowing costs to their highest levels in a quarter-century.

Get more insights like this when you sign up for EWI's free newsletter >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline If the Federal Reserve Board is So Smart, I’d Hate to See What Dumb Looks Like!. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

What Every Trader Really Needs to be Successful: A Method

By Elliott Wave International

In 1984, Elliott Wave International Founder Robert Prechter won the United States Trading Championship with a then-record 444% return. After Bob won, many subscribers asked for a list of tips, or even a breakdown of his trades, to try and replicate his success. Bob knew that wouldn’t help, so instead, he created a short list of “rules” that every trader needs to be successful. Here’s one:

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A Method

I mean an objectively definable method. One that is thought out in its entirety to the extent that if someone asks you how you make your decisions, you can explain it to him, and if he asks you again in six months, he will receive the same answer. This is not to say that a method cannot be altered or improved; it must, however, be developed as a totality before it is implemented. A prerequisite for obtaining a method is acceptance of the fact that perfection is not achievable. People who demand it are wasting their time searching for the Holy Grail, and they will never get beyond this first step of obtaining a method. I chose to use, for my decision making, an approach which was explained in our book, Elliott Wave Principle. I think the Wave Principle is the best way to understand the framework of a market and where prices are within that framework. There are a hundred other methods which will work if successful trading is your only goal. As I have often said, a simple 10-day moving average of the daily advance-decline net, probably the first indicator a stock market technician learns, can be used as a trading tool, if objectively defined rules are created for its use. The bad news is that as difficult and time consuming as this first major requirement can be, it is the easiest one to fulfill.

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See 4 more “rules for success” in EWI's free Special Report, What Every Trader Really Needs to be Successful.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What Every Trader Really Needs to be Successful: A Method. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Spotting the Nasdaq 100 Top Before a 12% Decline

By Elliott Wave International

On June 3, the Nasdaq 100 was at a record high.

But Robert Kelley, editor of Elliott Wave International’s U.S. Intraday Stocks Pro Service, saw reason to be cautious. The index was tracing out an expanding ending diagonal — an uncommon Elliott wave pattern that can signal an advance is nearing exhaustion.

Here’s what Kelley told subscribers that day:

“All right, so there’s the Nasdaq. It did make a slight new high, making this a reasonably conforming ending diagonal. We didn’t quite get to the five is longer than three count, but in my book, that’s not really a big deal, not really required. I don’t think Elliott himself ever dictated that requirement.

“But so far, the drop isn’t looking too impulsive… but the count shows it could be done.”

He then gave subscribers two levels to watch:

“That’s a big support level there, 30,318, roughly. So if that can give way, it’s in good shape to go lower. And this last rebound high, I think probably should contain any recovery, 30,694.75.”

What Happened Next:

The Nasdaq 100 turned lower. By the end of July, it had fallen roughly 12% from its June high.

The important point isn’t simply that the market fell. At the high, while the prevailing trend was still up, the wave pattern gave Kelley reason to watch for a reversal — along with specific price levels that would help confirm or challenge that outlook.

That’s what EWI’s Pro Services are built to provide: ongoing Elliott wave analysis, key levels and potential turning points across the markets you follow.

Take a Test-Drive & See What EWI’s Pro Services Are Forecasting Now

For a limited time, you can try EWI's Pro Services for one week for just $77. The Test Drive gives you unrestricted access to the entire Pro Services lineup — the same intraday, daily and weekly updates subscribers get, on all key markets worldwide — for pennies on the dollar!

Learn more and start your test drive now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Pro Services Spotted the Nasdaq 100 Top Before a 12% Decline. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

MSTR (Strategy) following it's Elliott wave script?

By Elliott Wave International

On October 15, 2025, Elliott Wave International's crypto analysts showed this chart to subscribers and outlined a developing setup in Strategy (MSTR).

"Favoring that wave 2 ended at 365.21, we're looking for a swift decline in five waves to complete wave 3."

What happened next?

Strategy declined sharply. At the time of the forecast, MSTR was trading near $300.67. As the wave structure unfolded, price declined to $104.17 by early February — a move of roughly 65%. MSTR would go on to fall as low as $81.81. The chart below shows the massive move into the February low.

Now what?

EWI's Crypto Junctures analyst Jason Soni recently recorded a subscriber video that highlights a NEW developing setup in MSTR. EWI have made the video FREE for a limited time.

See the new setup in MSTR now >>

Don't miss it — the sooner you see the setup, the sooner you can act.

Elliott Wave Counting Exercise: Start Simple and Adjust Along the Way

By Elliott Wave International

A good Elliott wave count isn't necessarily the one you come up with first.

As price develops, the structure can provide new information — and your interpretation needs to account for it.

That's what makes this new lesson interesting.

Elliott Wave Counting Exercise: Start Simple and Adjust Along the Way takes you inside the process of building and refining a wave count. You'll see market veteran Favio Poci start with the big picture, work down into shorter-term structures, and use wave rules, channeling and Fibonacci relationships to assess what's developing.

If you're interested in the practical side of Elliott wave analysis, you can watch the full lesson for free at elliottwave.com – free.

Junk Bond Spreads Diverge Further From Stocks

By Elliott Wave International

One of the stock market’s important warning signs is getting louder. Junk bond spreads and equities usually move together. When they don’t, it’s worth paying attention. Check out this excerpt from Elliott Wave International's August 19 Short Term Update.

“[This chart] shows updated prices for both the S&P 500 and the Bloomberg CCC-rated junk bond yield spread, which is inverted … so that it aligns with stock prices. So, a declining line on the chart showing junk bond spreads means that spreads are widening, indicating increasing investor angst. Most of the time, junk bond spreads trend and reverse with equities. When the trends between the two sectors diverge, it is meaningful. …

“At the left side of the chart, junk bond spreads made a low in late June 2021 and started to widen thereafter, signaling coming trouble for stocks. Five months later the Nasdaq 100 index topped in November 2021 and started a 38% decline to October 2022. Seven months after junk spreads started to widen, the S&P topped in early January 2022 and subsequently declined 28% to October 2022.

“After the April 7, 2025 market low, junk bond spreads narrowed until late January of this year. … An aggressive widening trend has been underway since then, with spreads now at the same level as they were two years ago, in August 2024. ...”

This is just one of many signals EWI's analysts are tracking.

See 18 more flashing red signals inside their newly updated must-read report.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Junk Bond Spreads Diverge Further From Stocks. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

46% of U.S. Household Assets Are Now in Stocks

By Elliott Wave International

America has never been more invested in the stock market.

This new, FREE report from our friends at Elliott Wave International, “When Everyone Became an Investor,” examines just how widespread today's market enthusiasm has become — from government-sponsored investing and Gen-Z risk-taking to household stock exposure that has now reached 46% of total financial assets.

The last time household exposure reached an extreme like this? The dot-com era.

This chart shows you where we stand today.

We encourage you to read the full report now — it's free for a limited time >>

This Widely Held Belief About the Trade Deficit Is Wrong

By Elliott Wave International

Every day, forecasters make predictions based on the same old tools: economic fundamentals, valuation models, polls and so on. And every day, many of those predictions miss—sometimes spectacularly. The point isn’t that traditional analysts aren’t well-educated; it’s that just MAYBE what they learned is wrong. When the same methods keep producing “misses,” “unexpecteds,” and “surprises,” it’s fair to wonder whether there’s a better way to understand markets, politics and social trends. Elliott Wave International has spent decades exploring exactly that possibility.

The widespread assumption is that trade deficits are bearish. But what does the evidence show?

This chart, from The Socionomic Theory of Finance, reveals that had economists expressed relief whenever the trade deficit began to expand and concern whenever it began to shrink, they would have quite accurately negotiated the ups and downs of the stock market and the economy for 40 years.

Over the span of these data, there has been a consistently positive—not negative—correlation among the stock market, the economy and the trade deficit.

So, the trade deficit’s widely presumed effect is 100% wrong.

Learn what other assumptions you could be falling for when you read Chapters 1 and 2 of Robert Prechter’s book, The Socionomic Theory of Finance – free.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline This Widely Held Belief About the Trade Deficit Is Wrong. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Craig on Crude — Bullish Near the Low; Bearish Near the High

By Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International's energy specialist, Steve Craig, just delivered a textbook example of why Elliott wave analysis can be so valuable: He identified the low in crude before the turn, tracked the advance as it unfolded, and then alerted his readers that crude was peaking.

On July 2, Craig told readers:

“[The] most likely wave count suggests significantly higher prices once the Primary wave 3 advance kicks in gear… RSI and stochastics have registered oversold readings and the DSI reached a bearish extreme… the market is getting ripe for an upward reversal.”

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Five days later, as crude began to turn higher, Craig’s Energy Pro Service recognized the change:

“Crude’s late-session advance offers an aggressive hint that the Primary wave ((2)) low is in place.”

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That was the beginning. Crude subsequently surged from its low near $68 to more than $93.

And then, Craig’s Elliott wave analysis recognized a change. On July 22, he warned:

“[An] interim top should be drawing near.”

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The following day, with crude still advancing, Craig’s analysis became more specific:

“I continue to suspect that Crude is in the latter stages of the Intermediate wave (1) advance.”

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And on July 24, with crude near its high, he said:

“[The] Intermediate wave (1) peak is in place.”

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What happened next?

The charts in the report show the progression clearly: a forecast for “significantly higher prices” while crude was still near its low, recognition that the turn had occurred, then increasingly specific warnings as the rally approached its peak.

That’s why you should read EWI's Elliott wave energy analysis. It doesn’t just explain yesterday’s market in hindsight, like other commentary so often does. It gives you a framework for anticipating what may happen next — and for recognizing when the outlook has changed.

Get more Energy market highlights FREE inside EWI's must-read report >

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Craig on Crude — Bullish Near the Low; Bearish Near the High. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

How Do You Make Trading Decisions?

By Elliott Wave International

Every trade begins with a series of decisions.

How do you identify a high-confidence setup? What confirmation should you wait for before entering? Where should your stop-loss go? And what do you do if the market proves you wrong?

In this free 30-minute lesson from Elliott Wave International, Trading Instructor Favio Poci opens up his Elliott Wave Playbook and answers those questions using four real-market examples across Gold, EURGBP, GBPJPY and AUDJPY.

As each setup unfolds, you'll see how he:

• Identifies potential Elliott Wave setups
• Waits for confirmation before entering
• Determines precise entry zones
• Sets stop-loss levels and evaluates risk/reward
• Adapts when price action doesn't go as planned

Perhaps the most valuable lesson: not every setup works as planned. Favio demonstrates that successful trading isn't about being right every time — it's about following a disciplined process for managing opportunities and risk.

Whether you're new to Elliott Wave analysis or looking to sharpen your trading approach, this lesson offers a practical look at how a market veteran applies the Wave Principle in real market conditions.

Watch the free lesson now at elliottwave.com.

How the Wave Principle Improves Trading: It Provides Price Targets

By Elliott Wave International

Technical studies do a good job of illuminating the way for traders, yet they each fall short for one major reason: they limit the scope of a trader’s understanding of current price action and how it relates to the overall picture of a market. Most technical studies simply don’t reveal pertinent information such as the maturity of a trend and a definable price target — but the Wave Principle does.

Here is one way the Wave Principle provides perspective:

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Provides Price Targets

What traditional technical studies simply don’t offer — price targets — the Wave Principle again provides. R.N. Elliott observed that the Fibonacci sequence is the mathematical basis for the Wave Principle. Elliott waves, both impulsive and corrective, often adhere to Fibonacci proportions, as illustrated in the chart below. These price targets allow traders to set profit-taking objectives or identify regions where the next turn in prices will occur.

See 4 more ways the Wave Principle improves trading — plus the kinds of trading opportunities Elliott waves identify and how to use waves to set protective stops — in Elliott Wave International's free Special Report. Create your free account to access Learn How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline When Junk Bond Spreads and Stocks Diverge. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

When Junk Bond Spreads and Stocks Diverge

By Elliott Wave International

What happens when junk bond spreads and stocks stop moving in sync? This excerpt from Elliott Wave International's July Financial Forecast explores a divergence their analysts are watching closely.

EWFF has long noted that junk bond credit spreads and stocks tend to trend and reverse together. In the event of bankruptcy, junk debt is one rung above equities in the pecking order of who gets paid. When the trend between the two assets diverges, it is meaningful.

"[The chart below] shows the S&P 500 and the CCC-rated junk bond spread, which is the yield on CCC-rated debt — debt that has a high risk of default — minus the yield on comparably dated U.S. Treasuries. To align junk debt spreads with the S&P, we inverted its scale.

… Starting in late January, [junk bond spreads] widened sharply. … Equally important, the widening in junk spreads has broken a trendline from October 2022. … This is just one of many signals EWI's analysts are tracking.

See 18 more red flags inside EWI's newly updated free report>>.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline When Junk Bond Spreads and Stocks Diverge. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Catching The 'Third of a Third' in AI BEFORE the Rest of the World

By Elliott Wave International

Paying attention is good. Knowing WHERE to pay attention is even better.

Leading market sectors often reveal what’s really happening beneath the surface.

In June 2017, Elliott Wave International's Global Market Perspective showed this chart and wrote:

“Leading sector indexes often provide important evidence to support or even to inform a wave count for the broader market. Nothing could be truer right now for the MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Infotech Index.

The index is leading Asian stock markets higher in a third-of-a-third-wave advance.”

What exactly did that imply?

A third wave is typically the strongest phase of a market advance. A third wave within a larger third wave—often called a “third of a third”—is where trends can accelerate dramatically.

What happened next?

As of June 2026, the MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Infotech Index has risen from roughly 500 to more than 3,500 — as in, a $10,000 investment would be worth close to $70,000.

That’s the value of paying attention in the right place.

Every month, EWI's Global Market Perspective analyzes more than 50 global markets—including stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds and emerging markets—to identify potential opportunities and risks across the globe.

The question isn’t what Global Market Perspective said in 2017.

The question is: What opportunities is it identifying today?

Subscribe to GMP today and find out >>.

Or, if you'd like to learn to spot third wave setups in your charts, this handy free resource teaches you the Elliott Wave basics in just 30 minutes >>.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Catching The 'Third of a Third' in AI BEFORE the Rest of the World. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Bob Prechter calls this setup a 'wonder to behold'

By Elliott Wave International

What’s your favorite Elliott Wave setup?

For many traders, the answer is simple: third waves.

As Elliott Wave International founder Robert Prechter puts it, third waves are “wonders to behold” because they are typically the longest, most powerful waves in a move.

Of the 5 waves in an Elliott wave impulse, the 3rd wave is the one you really want to catch -- and you definitely don’t want to be on the wrong side of one!

This idealized chart shows you what I mean:

You can see exactly what we’re talking about in these three examples. All of them are from the May 2025 issue of EWI's Global Market Perspective. And all of them happened to be bullish -- but the set-up works just as well on bearish moves.

The charts below show you when the forecast was made and what happened after:

Right now, the June 2026 Global Market Perspective identifies 12 markets showing third-wave behavior already underway - or just beginning to unfold.

See ALL 12 third-wave setups now inside EWI's Global Market Perspective >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International. EWI is the world's largest indepedant market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

What If You Could Spot One of History’s Fastest Rallies Before It Began?

By Elliott Wave International

On April 2, while bearish sentiment was extreme and many expected lower prices, subscribers to Elliott Wave International's Intraday Stocks Pro Services were shown a very different setup in the S&P 500.

In his 3:35 p.m. intraday update, analyst Robert Kelley posted this chart and wrote:

“The larger count labels today’s low as the bottom of a second wave pullback. That’s due to the clear three-wave drop into today’s low. If this count is right there will be a sizable advance next week. For now prices need to hold above 6501.90, the .786 retracement of wave iii so far, to keep this scenario in preferred status.”

The setup was classic Elliott wave analysis: a completed five-wave advance followed by a corrective three-wave decline — a pattern that often signals the trend is preparing to resume.

And notably, this wasn’t a vague bullish opinion. It came with a clearly defined risk level.

What Happened Next?

The labeled wave ii low held. And prices exploded. From that April 2 low, the S&P 500 surged to 7123.76 — a move of roughly +8.8%, part of what Kelley called “one of the fastest rallies in history.”

This illustrates how Elliott wave analysis can help identify important market turning points before they become obvious in price or headlines.

Learn the Wave Principle with Robert Kelley

Want to better understand patterns like this? Study with Robert, and 5 other instructors, in Trader’s Classroom. LIMITED TIME — Try Trader's Classroom for 30 days for just $30 >>.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What If You Could Spot One of History’s Fastest Rallies Before It Began?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Elliott Waves Subsume Classic Technical Chart Patterns

By Elliott Wave International

Traditional technical-analysis chart patterns fit within the broader framework of the Elliott wave model.

Elliott waves subsume head and shoulders tops and bottoms, rounding tops and bottoms, triangles, rectangles, double and triple tops and bottoms, diamonds, falling and rising wedges, pennants and flags.

Let’s take just one example: the head and shoulders top. The excerpt below, from Elliott Wave Principle, shows how it fits within the Wave Principle:

In a normal wave development, wave five of 3 and wave 4 form the “left shoulder” of the pattern, wave 5 and wave A form the “head,” and wave B and wave one of C form the “right shoulder.” Wave two of C creates the return to the neckline that is typical of the pattern (below).

So, if you’re a fan of traditional technical chart patterns, the Wave Principle can consolidate them under a single model and help you determine which formations are most likely of real significance.

To learn more about Elliott wave analysis, read the definitive text on the topic -- it’s free.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Elliott Waves Subsume Classic Technical Chart Patterns. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

The Idea that Peace and War Drive Stock Prices Is a Myth

By Elliott Wave International

Does an event as momentous as war affect the trend of the stock market?

Most people think so.

But the data don’t back it up.

Wars have no consistent causal effect on stocks: Sometimes the stock market rises during large-scale conflicts. Sometimes it falls. Sometimes it does both!

Just examine these charts:

There’s no reliable connection between war and stock prices. It’s a MYTH.

Chapters 1 and 2 of The Socionomic Theory of Finance debunk 12 more myths that most investors fall for.

You can read the chapters for FREE now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The Idea that Peace and War Drive Stock Prices Is a Myth. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

The Idea that Peace and War Drive Stock Prices Is a Myth

By Elliott Wave International

Does an event as momentous as war affect the trend of the stock market?

Most people think so.

But the data don’t back it up.

Wars have no consistent causal effect on stocks: Sometimes the stock market rises during large-scale conflicts. Sometimes it falls. Sometimes it does both!

Just examine these charts:

There’s no reliable connection between war and stock prices. It’s a MYTH.

Chapters 1 and 2 of The Socionomic Theory of Finance debunk 12 more myths that most investors fall for.

You can read the chapters for FREE now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The Idea that Peace and War Drive Stock Prices Is a Myth. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Silver’s Volatility Is Flashing a Familiar Signal

By Elliott Wave International

Silver is living up to its reputation for volatility as the new year begins.

Silver’s one-month implied volatility has surged, a development that has historically coincided with important highs and lows in the metal’s price. Since 2020, similar volatility spikes have tended to appear near key turning points rather than during quiet, trending phases.

At the same time, the silver/gold ratio has also jumped, showing that silver began outperforming gold late in last year’s rally. In past cycles, sharp advances in this ratio have often accompanied tops in silver prices.

What makes the current setup notable is the interaction between these two measures. Spikes in volatility have frequently aligned with turning points in the silver/gold ratio, while spikes in the ratio itself have tended to appear near major price peaks.

Will history repeat once again — or is this rally still unfolding? Elliott wave analysis helps place these extremes into a broader market context and assess what typically comes next when conditions look like this.

Elliott Wave International has identified 18 charts that are flashing “warning” signals – check out their free report to prepare for what’s next..