What Drives Gold Prices? (Don't Say "the Fed!")

 By Elliott Wave International

Excerpted from Elliott Wave International's new FREE report "Gold Investor's Survival Guide: 5 Principles That Help You Stay Ahead of Price Turns."

There is a glaring hole in the popular understanding of what drives gold's price.

Mainstream finance believes the Federal Reserve's monetary and interest rate policies shape the trend.

That sounds like a solid explanation... except, the Fed officials themselves disagree!

Consider their own statements:

In July 2013, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress he "doesn't pretend to understand gold prices... nobody does."

Bernanke's successor Janet Yellen later concurred: "I don't think anybody has a very good model of what makes gold prices go up or down."

And at the 2014 New Orleans Investment Conference, perhaps the most famous Fed chair, Alan "the Maestro" Greenspan, explained that gold's "value...is outside the policies conducted by governments." (You know, like the highly revered quasi-government institution he used to be the head of.)

Despite the uncertainty voiced by the three most recent Fed chairs, mainstream analysts today still believe the Fed's monetary policy pushes around gold's price.

Investors accept this idea as fact because they hear it endlessly. But the notion is simply not accurate. As a result, these investors find themselves on the wrong side of the trend time and time again.

Fortunately, you don't have to be one of them.

Principle #1: Forget the fallacy that "gold follows the Fed."

Consider this chart of gold prices alongside the Fed's monetary policy since 2011.

First red arrow: In 2011-2015, gold prices plunged 40%. By mainstream logic, gold's freefall must have coincided with hawkish Fed -- because higher rates make other investments besides gold more attractive, so gold prices fall. Right?

In fact, it was just the opposite. During the same period, in 2011-2015, the Fed left interest rates at their lowest level ever, 0% to .25%. But that's not all. The Fed also injected $4.5 trillion in stimulus into the markets and economy during this time via quantitative easing. According to conventional wisdom, either action should have pushed gold's price higher -- and together, MUCH higher.

Yet... gold fell over 40%!

First green arrow: Now look at December 2016 - August 2019, when gold prices moved mostly higher. That must mean the Fed was LOWERING interest rates at the time -- right?

Nope! During this time, the Fed RAISED rates eight times -- and QE had long been retired. Gold rose anyway.

Second green arrow: Next, look at November 2019 - July 2020. The Fed cut rates five times and launched QE4 in January 2020. Gold fell, right?

Ha! Despite the dovish Fed and the new QE, gold's rally resumed.

Second red arrow: Lastly, look at August 6, 2020. The Fed said it'd keep rates near 0% indefinitely and inject trillions in new stimulus money. Did gold rally?

Yeah, right! Gold prices peaked and turned down.

If anything, since 2011, the mainstream's understanding of the Fed/gold relationship has been backward.

Except, there is an even better explanation. Read it now in EWI's new "Gold Investor's Survival Guide." You'll learn an objective method to help you forecast gold's price moves, how to identify and stick with gold's trend and more. A $49 value, yours FREE. Get it now at elliottwave.com.

Why "Trouble is Brewing" for the U.S. Housing Market

"Home price declines follow home sales declines"

By Elliott Wave International

In many parts of the country, the price of homes has been skyrocketing.

Indeed, the index of home prices across 20 large cities increased at a yearly pace of 13.3% in March, according to a well-known home price index.

That statistic appears to represent a sign of health for the housing market. So, you may ask: "Why is trouble brewing?"

Well, this chart and commentary from our May Elliott Wave Financial Forecast provide insight:

We keep hearing about the "Housing Madness" that shows "No Signs of Slowing." A would-be renter offered $2 million for a summer rental in the Hamptons and was turned down! Still, there are subtle but important signs of trouble in paradise. As the chart shows, total new and existing home sales made a countertrend rally high in October, which was still 21% below the all-time high in July 2005. As we have noted, home price declines follow home sales declines.

In fact, after the May Elliott Wave Financial Forecast published, a May 29 Marketwatch headline said "Pending home sales sink as the housing market falls back to Earth." Here's a quote from the article:

Pending home sales dropped 4.4% in April compared with March, the National Association of Realtors reported this week... [which] offers reason for caution. Buyers who have been unable to get into a contract for a home may eventually opt to give up and wait... That could throw cold water on the hot housing market.

Also, keep an eye on the stock market. History shows that stock and real estate prices tend to be closely correlated.

Here's a chart and commentary from the 2020 edition of Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash:

Real estate prices have always fallen hard when stock prices have fallen hard. The chart displays this reliable relationship.

You can get Elliott wave analysis of U.S. stocks – plus more insights into the U.S. housing market – by reviewing Elliott Wave International’s Financial Forecast Service.

If you’re unfamiliar with Elliott wave analysis, or need to re-acquaint yourself with the Wave Principle, know that you can access the online version of the book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, for free!

Here’s a quote from Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic:

The Wave Principle often indicates in advance the relative magnitude of the next period of market progress or regress. Living in harmony with those trends can make the difference between success and failure in financial affairs.

All that’s required for free access to the book is a Club EWI membership. Club EWI is the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community (about 350,000 members and growing rapidly) and is free to join.

Just follow this link and you can have the book on your computer screen in moments: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior – free and unlimited access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Why "Trouble is Brewing" for the U.S. Housing Market. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.