Gold: Why You Should Be Wary of the "Consensus"

Recent sentiment toward the yellow metal matched peak 2011 levels

By Elliott Wave International

You may recall investor optimism that attended gold's then record high of $1921.50 in September 2011.

A Gallup poll from that time period captured the prevailing sentiment. The Sept. 2, 2011 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said a monthly publication which provides forecasts for major U.S. financial markets, said:

Perhaps the strongest sign of a gold top is a recent Gallup poll showing Americans now consider gold to be the best long-term investment. Gallup parsed the survey by gender, age, income level and political affiliation and in every single subset, gold won out. ... Everyone is onboard gold's uptrend. It is surely a sign of exhaustion.

Indeed, less than a week later, gold hit its then record high.

Well, as you probably know, gold went on to pass that record high here in 2020. The price reached $2072.12 on August 8.

The August 14 Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly financial and social trends publication written by Elliott Wave International founder Robert Prechter, showed this figure and said:

[The figure] shows a 10-day moving average of Market Vane's Bullish Consensus toward gold. This indicator tracks the daily buy/sell recommendations of market analysts and commodity trading advisors. As you can see, the consensus is strongly bullish.

This strongly bullish was expressed less than two weeks later in this Yahoo! News headline (August 25):

Why $5000 Gold Could Soon Become A Reality

That's possible -- yet, if you've been keeping up with gold's price, you know that it's more than 4% lower (as of Sept. 25) than it was when the August 14 Elliott Wave Theorist discussed Market Vane's Bullish Consensus.

Should investors expect the "bottom to drop out" from here on out, or is there still more upside to go for gold?

Well, besides sentiment measures, it's also a good idea to keep an eye on the Elliott wave structure of gold's price chart.

As Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, by Frost & Prechter, states:

The primary value of the Wave Principle is that it provides a context for market analysis. This context provides both a basis for disciplined thinking and a perspective on the market's general position and outlook. At times, its accuracy in identifying, and even anticipating, changes in direction is almost unbelievable.

Would you like to learn more about the Wave Principle?

Well, Elliott Wave International is making the online version of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior available to you free when you join Club EWI, the world's largest Elliott wave educational community. Don't worry -- Club EWI membership is also free and there are no obligations when you join.

Besides free access to the book, members are also granted free access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources on financial markets, investing and trading.

Get started by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior -- free and unlimited access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Gold: Why You Should Be Wary of the "Consensus". EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

 

Any Liquid Market, Any Timeframe: Know How to Spot New Opportunities Today

Learn simple techniques in this on-demand webinar, free ($129 value)

By Elliott Wave International

One positive development to come out of the 2020 pandemic is a widespread desire for financial independence. It's led everyone from retirees to Generation Z's to consider stock trading as a "cushion" against job uncertainty.

That's the good news! The bad news is, much of this new investment craze is being fueled by emotions and endorphins (hey -- all new traders have them!) rather than objective criteria. One leading economist coined the term "day-trading pandemic" in June to describe the "legions of participants pouring money into stocks without a care for the risks involved." (June 17 MarketWatch)

An August 11 NPR report confirmed the "addictive," "playing-with-fire" nature of this wave of new investing interest, in which first-time traders use free apps to impulsively jump into popular markets -- sometimes, only to meet ruinous ends.

Our friends at Elliott Wave International have been observing and forecasting markets and investor behavior for over 40 years. They believe that in order to succeed in this tough game, one must have a solid understanding of the market's patterned nature -- before safely stepping through that door.

EWI's chief instructor Jeffrey Kennedy is one of the world's leading practitioners and educators of the Elliott Wave Principle. If you are one of those new traders -- or maybe a seasoned veteran with more to learn -- his classic on-demand webinar "Introduction to Spotting Elliott Wave Opportunities" is your first step.

This 2-part, 2+hour course combines the best of Jeffrey's hard-won tips, tools, and techniques for using the Wave Principle to identify high-confidence trading opportunities -- on any market and any time frame.

But if there were only one part his students could take away from this course, it would be this chart described by Jeffrey in Part 1.

And now, let's take that idealized bearish setup and see how it plays out in real world markets.

Here, we turn to this chart of sugar prices in 2015-2016, when an 80% rally earned sugar the title of "best-performer of all commodities that trade on U.S. exchanges." (Oct. 3, 2016 Seeking Alpha)

Said one August 15, 2016 Seeking Alpha:

"The multiyear sugar bear turns bull. The second year of deficit can launch the sweet commodity even higher."

Yet at the same time, Jeffrey Kennedy recognized a long-term bearish Elliott wave setup on sugar's chart:

"I wouldn't be surprised to see this advance continue into September or even October of this year ... to an objective of 22.89.

"I will then look for a significant decline that should last for a number of years and easily push prices well below the low we experienced in 2015 at 10.13."

The next chart captures what happened next: After rallying into Jeffrey's cited target, sugar prices collapsed to become the "worst-performing commodity" of 2018.

The real-world applicability of the Wave Principle is undeniable. Imagine what else you can learn from Jeffrey's webinar.

How about:

• 3 core rules of Elliott wave analysis
• 5 core Elliott wave patterns
• What is Jeffrey's favorite Elliott wave pattern and why
• Easy signs to identify a market's trend
• Tricks for setting specific entry points, exit points and protective stops

-- and more!

When it comes to investing or trading, you can either "play with fire" -- or, you can arm yourself with an arsenal of objective tools and techniques to minimize risk and magnify high-confidence setups.

So, take Elliott Wave International's webinar "Introduction to Spotting Elliott Wave Opportunities" now -- a $129 value, it's yours 100% FREE with a fast, free Club EWI setup.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Any Liquid Market, Any Timeframe: Know How to Spot New Opportunities Today. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.