Here's a Unique Way to Spot Worthy Investment or Trading Ideas

"Short term elliotticity helps us recognize markets that have recently traced out clear Elliott waves"

By Elliott Wave International

This one-of-a-kind way to spot investment ideas is called "elliotticity." The impartial arbiter of elliotticity is our proprietary computer program called EWAVES, Elliott Wave Analysis & Validation Expert System.

Elliott Wave International has been perfecting EWAVES for years; it already powers EWI's Flash Services recommendations. And now, it can quantify the exact percentage by which a market adheres to the Elliott wave model by giving it an elliotticity score.

Our recent monthly Elliott Wave Theorist provided more insights:

Total elliotticity takes into account the entire history of a market. Markets with the highest total elliotticity conform best to the Elliott wave model at all degrees of scale. Short term elliotticity helps us recognize markets that have recently traced out clear Elliott waves and thus are good candidates for near term forecasting. ...

Elliotticity is designed for practical use. We use a percentage scale of 1-100.

Currencies and commodities adhere well to the model, so both are high-elliotticity asset classes. Regarding stocks, high-volume and high market-capitalization stocks tend to have a higher adherence versus thinly traded issues -- because Elliott waves track herding (or crowd) behavior, and generally speaking, the bigger the market cap of a stock, the bigger the crowd.

Here's another quote from our recent Elliott Wave Theorist:

Trend following indicators are quantitative by nature, completely dependent upon pre-chosen numerical indicator settings. But the market's trends do not adhere to quantitative norms. ...

The most important advantage of EWAVES is that it is qualitative. It can identify the market's patterns regardless of their quantitative duration, price change, speed, volatility or any other such aspects.

Like all market forecasting, EWAVES operates on probabilities, not certainties. Yet, EWAVES does offer investment ideas worth your attention -- analyzing several hundred investment vehicles each day and ranking them to find the best wave counts.

Where can you see them?

You'll find the investment vehicles sporting the highest elliotticity right now in our monthly Global Market Perspective in the section titled "EWAVES," which includes the "EWAVES Chart Gallery." In case you're unfamiliar with the Global Market Perspective, it's an Elliott Wave International publication which provides Elliott wave analysis for 50+ worldwide financial markets.

If you'd like to brush up on your knowledge of Elliott wave analysis, or are brand new to the subject, you are encouraged to read the Wall Street classic book by Frost & Prechter, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here's a quote from the book:

Always invest with the preferred wave count. Not infrequently, the two or even three best counts comfortably dictate the same investment stance. Sometimes being continuously sensitive to alternatives can allow you to make money even when your preferred count is in error. For instance, after a minor low that you erroneously consider of major importance, you may recognize at a higher level that the market is vulnerable again to new lows. This recognition occurs after a clear-cut three-wave rally follows the minor low rather than the necessary five, since a three-wave rally is the sign of an upward correction. Thus, what happens after the turning point often helps confirm or refute the assumed status of the low or high, well in advance of danger.

Even if the market allows no such graceful change of opinion, the Wave Principle still offers exceptional value. Most other approaches to market analysis, whether fundamental, technical or cyclical, have no good way of forcing a reversal of opinion or position if you are wrong. The Wave Principle, in contrast, provides a built-in objective method for placing a stop. Since wave analysis is based upon price patterns, a pattern identified as having been completed is either over or it isn't. If the market changes direction, the analyst has caught the turn. If the market moves beyond what the apparently completed pattern allows, the conclusion is wrong, and any funds at risk can be reclaimed immediately.

Here's the good news: You can access the online version of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behaviorfor free when you become a Club EWI member.

Club EWI is the world's largest Elliott wave educational community and is free to join -- PLUS, members enjoy free access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources on investing and trading without any obligation.

Just follow this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior -- free and unlimited access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Here's a Unique Way to Spot Worthy Investment or Trading Ideas. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

So... This Happened! One Crypto Goes From "Little-Known" -to- "Top 10" in 6 Weeks

SOL surges 10x in six weeks, outshining crypto kings like Bitcoin and Ethereum. See how you could have seen the rally coming.

By Elliott Wave International

The world's financial authorities continue toggling back and forth between banning digital currency transactions one day, and predicting hyperbitcoinization -- i.e., bitcoin becoming fiat currency -- the other.

All the while high-profile gazillionaires like Elon Musk stir the pot with metaphorical nursing tweets about "pumping not dumping" bitcoin.

Thus, it's hard to remember bitcoin is NOT the only sheriff in town. There are hundreds of listed tokens quietly making huge waves in their much smaller pools. One such name is Solana, a lower altcoin who, between July 20 and September 9, actually outperformed the leading crypto kings.

While Solana stood at a much more accessible $22 at its July 20 low, Bitcoin stood just under $30,000. And yet, only one of these two currencies surged tenfold from that low to all-time highs in the ensuing month.

That would've been Solana!

In fact, Solana's incredible run catapulted it into the elite list of "Top 10" cryptos, for the 10th ranking. And everyone from the August 16 Forbes -- "Solana Hits New All-Time High" -- to the August 16 Public UK -- "Solana Price on a Roar!" -- stood up and paid attention to the action.

An August 24 Coin Telegraph had this stunning testament to the new-found fervor for Solana:

"Institutional investors bet big on Solana... with one-third of inflows to crypto investment products being invested in instruments tracking Solana this past week.

"According to CoinShares' Monday 'Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly' report, $7.1 million flowed into Solana investment products between Aug. 15 and Friday."

The problem is, according to mainstream wisdom, nobody could've foreseen Solana going from back-of-the-line lagger to leader of the race. Said one August 17 news source:

"Its native SOL token has been the stand-out performer during the recent cryptocurrency surge of the last few days.

"The reason for the sudden and dramatic interest in Solana's open infrastructure blockchain has left many analysts scratching their heads."

Many, but not all.

On July 11, our Crypto Pro Service analyst Tony Carrion set the stage for a very bullish scenario. Tony showed the following SOLUSD chart, which pegged prices at the end of a fourth-wave Elliott wave correction.

The next move due was a fifth wave rally -- to new highs:

"We have structural support at 26.73, and hopefully the market won't need to go below that. The bottom line is that we'd want to see 38.08 exceeded, and ultimately a move above 44.10 to bolster the bullish scenario that is unfolding."

And this is what followed: SOL soared four-fold to record highs!

Then, as SOL penetrated $90 mark, the August 29 Crypto Pro Service revisited the crypto with a new, updated forecast; one that called for still higher prices even as the mainstream experts continued to scratch their heads as to why the crypto was rallying in the first place. In Tony's words:

"Apparently, a number of fundamental guys are still trying to figure out why Solana is doing this. As I've said many times, fundamental analysis is basically useless in trying to calculate price moves.

"Elliott wave analysis is far superior; it allowed us to use the .618 multiple of wave 1 to calculate where 5 might move, when it was trading way back in the 20's.

"Wave 5 isn't finished. We're not inclined to stand in the way of this move and will see what the market does. There are still higher projections using Fibonacci ratios. Heck, we could get all the way above $200."

And, a move to above $200 on September 9 is what followed!

It's commonly said that crypto markets are loose cannons with unpredictable trends.

We believe that's true -- IF you don't have the right tools to analyze price action.

We don't claim that Elliott waves are a crystal ball, of course. But patterns of investor and trader psychology are at play in cryptos, too -- making this "unpredictable" market quite the opposite.

Right now, our friends at EWI are hosting a Crypto-trader event (FREE): Now thru Sept. 23 Elliott Wave International opens the doors to their trader-focused Crypto Pro Service. FREE for 7 days, you get objective intraday + daily forecasts for Bitcoin, Ethereum + 6 more cryptos. PLUS, get up-to-speed at the free "kick-off" webinar with EWI's Crypto Pro Service editor Tony Carrion. Discover details and join in at elliottwave.com now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline So... This Happened! One Crypto Goes From "Little-Known" -to- "Top 10" in 6 Weeks. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Why a Financial "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner

Here's why global investors should keep a close eye on "sight deposits"

By Elliott Wave International

Investors look to an array of indicators in hopes of determining what is next for the financial markets in which they are interested.

Some investors may focus entirely on "technical" indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), price levels of "support" or "resistance," or say, advancing vs. declining issues, just to name a few. As you probably know, there are many more technical indicators.

Market participants also look at sentiment readings such as mutual fund cash levels, investors' use of leverage, surveys and so on.

Yet, there's at least one indicator that many global investors may overlook, and that's the weekly change in "sight deposits" at the Swiss National Bank.

This chart and commentary from the September Global Market Perspective, an Elliott Wave International publication which offers coverage of 50+ worldwide financial markets, provide insight:

For the week ending August 6, commercial banks poured 1.2 billion francs into the Swiss National Bank, the largest weekly inflow since mid-June. The cash that banks park at the central bank are called "sight deposits," and, together, the June and August data points represent the largest weekly inflows since the coronavirus panic in early 2020.

The previous spikes on the chart show why we keep such a close eye on sight deposits. Bank officials move cash into the SNB when fear swells, and they pull cash back out when complacency returns.

So, it does appear that fear is starting to develop among bankers.

As the September Global Market Perspective goes on to say:

With total sight deposits pushing to an all-time record of 713 billion francs last month, bank officials seem all too happy to park their money at the central bank. Perhaps they know something that the average meme stock investor doesn't.

Elliott Wave International's global analysts will continue to monitor sight deposits along with other indicators, plus, the Elliott wave structure of 50+ global financial markets.

Indeed, the September Global Market Perspective shows a chart with the Elliott wave patterns of two major global stock indexes. The chart's headline is "The Alarm Bells Are Ringing."

If you need to brush up on your knowledge of Elliott wave patterns, or you are new to Elliott wave analysis, you are encouraged to read the Wall Street classic: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, by Frost & Prechter.

Here's a quote from the book:

In its broadest sense, the Wave Principle suggests the idea that the same law that shapes living creatures and galaxies is inherent in the spirit and activities of men en masse. Because the stock market is the most meticulously tabulated reflector of mass psychology in the world, its data produce an excellent recording of man's social psychological states and trends. This record of the fluctuating self-evaluation of social man's own productive enterprise makes manifest specific patterns of progress and regress. What the Wave Principle says is that mankind's progress (of which the stock market is a popularly determined valuation) does not occur in a straight line, does not occur randomly, and does not occur cyclically. Rather, progress takes place in a "three steps forward, two steps back" fashion, a form that nature prefers.

If you'd like to read the entire online version of the book, you can do so by becoming a Club EWI member. Club EWI is the world's largest Elliott wave educational community and is free to join. You are under no obligation as a Club EWI member. Yet, members do enjoy complimentary access to a wealth of useful Elliott wave resources on financial markets, investing and trading.

Join Club EWI and get free access to the book by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Why a Financial "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Stocks: Is This the "Kiss of Death" for the Bull Market?

Stock market prices usually decline after this occurs

By Elliott Wave International

Many market observers believe that the catalyst for the next bear market will be a piece of extraordinarily bad news.

However, Elliott Wave International has shown time and again that the stock market's price action is often "entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions."

Examples of stocks rising when the news is bad -- and falling when the news is good -- are so numerous that a library shelf of books would be inadequate to show a fair representation of them. For the most recent vivid example, just think back to March 2020, when the first wave of the pandemic hit and shuttered the entire global economy -- yet, stocks (around the world!) happily found a bottom and haven't looked back since.

No, the stock market is governed by the psychology and behavior of investors themselves.

One of the noteworthy behaviors is investors' use of margin debt.

Indeed, back in 1980, The Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which provides analysis of financial markets and social trends, said:

[A] failure of margin debt to expand in an advancing market [can be] the 'kiss of death' to a bull trend.

With that in mind, consider this chart and commentary from the recently published September Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which covers key U.S. financial markets:

The arrows on the chart of the year-over-year change in New York Stock Exchange margin debt show that [The Theorist's] statement has been true at three major market tops over the last 24 years: at the market top in August 1987 ... the S&P's March 2000 top ... and at the October 2007 peak. As the latest arrow shows, a rapid expansion in margin debt has, once again, reversed trend.

Keep in mind that the stock market does not always decline after a year-over-year drop in margin debt. However, if the use of margin debt substantially falls just after reaching a record high, history does show that stock prices usually tumble thereafter.

That said, in June, margin debt reached a record high of $882 billion, which makes the July retreat of $37.7 billion especially significant.

The Elliott wave model pinpoints the patterns of investor psychology even more precisely.

As our September Financial Forecast said, the current unfolding Elliott wave of the Dow Industrials is "one for the ages."

If you'd like to learn how the Wave Principle can help you analyze and forecast financial markets, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, is the go-to book for doing so. Here's a quote from this Wall Street classic:

Because applying the Wave Principle is an exercise in probability, the ongoing maintenance of alternative wave counts is an essential part of using it correctly. In the event that the market violates the expected scenario, the alternate count puts the unexpected market action into perspective and immediately becomes your new preferred count. If you're thrown by your horse, it's useful to land right atop another.

Always invest with the preferred wave count. Not infrequently, the two or even three best counts comfortably dictate the same investment stance. Sometimes being continuously sensitive to alternatives can allow you to make money even when your preferred count is in error. For instance, after a minor low that you erroneously consider of major importance, you may recognize at a higher level that the market is vulnerable again to new lows. This recognition occurs after a clear-cut three-wave rally follows the minor low rather than the necessary five, since a three-wave rally is the sign of an upward correction. Thus, what happens after the turning point often helps confirm or refute the assumed status of the low or high, well in advance of danger.

You can read the entire online version of the book for free when you become a Club EWI member. Club EWI is the world's largest Elliott wave educational community and is free to join. Members enjoy free access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources on financial markets, investing and trading.

Get started by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior -- free and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Stocks: Is This the "Kiss of Death" for the Bull Market?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

This Boom-Bust Cycle in Home Ownership Should Give Home Shoppers Pause

Here's "what happens when a consumption item becomes an investment item"

By Elliott Wave International

On a news / talk radio station in my local area, a commercial that frequently runs goes something like this:

"I buy all kinds of houses: big houses and small houses, condemned houses, foreclosed houses, 'my tenant won't pay the rent' houses ..." and on it goes. The speaker says he's a real estate investor and provides his phone number.

Real estate speculation like this helps drive home prices up across the country.

Indeed, on August 27, a financial firm's chief investment officer told CNBC:

"I feel bad for the people who bought homes over the past year because they're the ones that paid the very elevated prices."

The investment officer mentions that if a buyer puts down 5% and home prices correct 10%, the equity is "basically wiped out."

So, what's the likelihood that recent homebuyers will feel financial pain anytime soon?

Well, it's possible that the homeownership boom could continue for a time longer. Then again, if history is a guide, the "bust" part of the equation may be just ahead.

Robert Prechter explains with this chart and commentary from his landmark book, The Socionomic Theory of Finance:

From 1995 to 2006, many speculators built or bought housing and other properties in anticipation of higher prices, thereby treating formerly economic items as financial items. Market participants' shift in mental orientation from a producing or consuming mindset to a speculative mindset changed their behavior, resulting in a classic boom and bust.

So, this might not be the ideal time to buy a house. Even so, sales have ticked up despite skyrocketing prices (Reuters, August 24):

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes increased in July after three straight monthly declines ... .

Of course, everyone needs a place to live, but if current home shoppers can wait, big bargains in real estate may be just around the corner.

Watch the stock market because its trend tends to correlate with housing prices.

The best way to analyze the stock market is by using the Elliott wave model.

Indeed, here's a quote from Frost & Prechter's book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior:

After you have acquired an Elliott "touch," it will be forever with you, just as a child who learns to ride a bicycle never forgets. Thereafter, catching a turn becomes a fairly common experience and not really too difficult. Furthermore, by giving you a feeling of confidence as to where you are in the progress of the market, a knowledge of Elliott can prepare you psychologically for the fluctuating nature of price movement and free you from sharing the widely practiced analytical error of forever projecting today's trends linearly into the future. Most important, the Wave Principle often indicates in advance the relative magnitude of the next period of market progress or regress. Living in harmony with those trends can make the difference between success and failure in financial affairs.

You can access the online version of this Wall Street classic for free once you become a Club EWI member.

Club EWI is the world's largest Elliott wave educational community and is free to join. Members enjoy free access to a treasure trove of Elliott wave resources on financial markets, investing and trading.

Get started by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior -- free and unlimited access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline This Boom-Bust Cycle in Home Ownership Should Give Home Shoppers Pause. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Will Oil Prices Skyrocket in the Aftermath of Hurricane Ida?

"Supply and demand" does not always determine the price trend of crude oil

By Elliott Wave International

As you probably know, Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana on August 29, the exact date that Hurricane Katrina made a Louisiana landfall sixteen years earlier.

On August 30, the Wall Street Journal said:

Oil Industry Surveys Damage After Hurricane Ida Slams Louisiana
The storm disrupted fuel supplies, and the speed of the recovery will depend on how long it takes for refineries to come online amid flooding and power outages

Did oil prices skyrocket due to the disruption in oil production? Well, Bloomberg reported (August 30) that prices initially fell 1.6% [as Ida made landfall] before they "edged" higher.

So, no, oil prices did not "skyrocket." As of this writing on August 31, crude oil's price is roughly in the same neighborhood as it was before Hurricane Ida hit.

This is mentioned because many energy market observers might think that a supply disruption would "cause" oil prices to zoom higher. However, contrary to conventional belief, the trend of oil prices is not always determined by "supply and demand."

Indeed, the oil production disruption associated with Hurricane Katrina was far worse than what occurred with Ida.

Even so, take a look at this classic chart from a past Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which analyzes financial markets and social trends. The associated commentary is below the chart:

The chart shows the day [Hurricane Katrina made landfall]: August 29, 2005, right at a top and just before a three-month oil-price slide of over 20%. A record-breaking ... disruption in the supply of oil failed to make oil prices zoom. On the chart, it even looks as if somehow the event made prices fall.

That doesn't necessarily mean that the price of oil will take the exact same path following Hurricane Ida.

The point is: Financial markets like commodities are not always subject to the economic law of supply and demand, but instead are endogenously regulated and governed by the Wave Principle.

So, what happens with oil's price path now hinges on the current Elliott wave structure of oil's price chart.

If you'd like to learn about how the Elliott wave model can help you analyze financial markets, you are encouraged to read the Wall Street classic Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, by Frost & Prechter.

Here's a quote from the book:

Although it is the best forecasting tool in existence, the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. Nevertheless, that description does impart an immense amount of knowledge about the market's position within the behavioral continuum and therefore about its probable ensuing path. The primary value of the Wave Principle is that it provides a context for market analysis. This context provides both a basis for disciplined thinking and a perspective on the market's general position and outlook. At times, its accuracy in identifying, and even anticipating, changes in direction is almost unbelievable.

The Wave Principle can be used to analyze any widely traded financial market, like crude oil, stocks, gold, bonds, currencies and more.

Here's the good news: You can read the online version of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior for free once you become a Club EWI member.

Club EWI is the world's largest Elliott wave educational community and is free to join. You are under no obligations as a Club EWI member. At the same time, you'll enjoy access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources on investing and trading.

Get started by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior -- free and unlimited access.